What is normalcy bias?
Hello. This is Megumiroku. It is my first time publishing a blog in English, so I am really excited! It is a quite long blog, but I guarantee you that you will learn something new from this!
Recently, a new coronavirus (COVID-19) has had a serious impact on economy and society. While a great deal of news is shared via multiple media, fake news and false rumor are also spreading on a large scale.
In such a situation, there is one TEDx talk that inspires me greatly. Today, I would like to share it with you. But, first of all, let me explain TED and TEDx. If you have already known those two, please start reading from "what is normalcy bias."
1. What is TED / TEDx?
I am sure many of you have already heard of TED. For those of you who do not know about TED, I would like to briefly introduce what TED is. The official webpage indicates:
TED is a nonprofit devoted to spreading ideas, usually in the form of short, powerful talks (18 minutes or less). TED began in 1984 as a conference where Technology, Entertainment and Design converged, and today covers almost all topics — from science to business to global issues — in more than 100 languages. Meanwhile, independently run TEDx events help share ideas in communities around the world.
(TED webpage, April, 4th, 2020 access, retreived from https://www.ted.com/about/our-organization)
Did you know that TED stands for Technology, Entertainment, and Design? Simply put, TED is a nonprofit organization whose mission is to spread ideas.
By the way, there are a few sentences describing TEDx. (What the heck is it??) Since the video I am going to share today is a TEDx talk, I would like to explain TEDx too.
A TEDx event is a local gathering where live TED-like talks and performances are shared with the community. TEDx events are fully planned and coordinated independently, on a community-by-community basis. The content and design of each TEDx event is unique and developed independently, but all of them have features in common.
(TED webpage, April, 4th, 2020 access, https://www.ted.com/about/our-organizationhttps://www.ted.com/participate/organize-a-local-tedx-event/before-you-start/what-is-a-tedx-event )
Features in common here include "TED's format", "Diversity of topics", and "Community-driven and bias-free content." Therefore, TEDx is a TED-like local event that carries the same mission as TED "spreading ideas."
Now, let's move on to the content. What we need to think about in the current situation is what is called "normalcy bias."
2. What is normalcy bias?
Normalcy bias is a psychological technical term and is defined as
a psychological state of denial people enter in the event of a disaster, as a result of which they underestimate the possibility of the disaster actually happening, and its effects on their life and property. Their denial is based on the assumption that if the disaster has not occurred until now, it will never occur.
PsycholoGenie, April, 4th, 2020 access, https://psychologenie.com/insight-into-concept-of-normalcy-bias-in-psychology
I see. This may apply to the current situation. So normalcy bias is a psychological state that underestimates the situation, which can be very dangerous. Detailed information can be found from the link above.
3. TEDx today
Today's TEDx talk is performed by Megumi Tsuchihashi in 2018. The title of the talk is "Killed by yourself."
Isn't it an intense title? I am sure you can't wait to hear her speech!
I contacted her and got permission from her this time; she agreed with my opening script to public. She talks about how normalcy bias affects us, how we can prevent from this happening.
Now, please enjoy the TEDx talk associating with the current corona-spreading circumstances!!!
The script is shown below:
The sound of a string quartet traveled through the world’s largest unsinkable liner, the Titanic. The sound and the mood made people forget they were in the middle of the ocean. People were happily dancing, eating and drinking. A few hours later, crash! The Titanic had collided with an iceberg and started to sink. However, there were not enough lifeboats for everyone. As a result, approximately 1500 out of 2200 people sank to the bottom of the sea. Why didn’t they have enough lifeboats? It was due to a killer in ourselves, “normalcy bias.” Today, I would like to talk about how the normalcy bias affects us. Through my speech, I will give you a tip to protect yourself when an emergency situation occurs.
The Disaster Prevention System Institute defines “Normalcy bias” as “a human instinct that underestimates the emergency situation to prevent the brain from getting tired of every single accident.” Because of this bias, we sometimes think a situation is not dangerous and nothing will happen to us. When the Titanic was made, people didn’t load enough lifeboats because they believed that the Titanic would never sink. This idea came from the normalcy bias. Because of it, uncountable lives were killed in the past, and people will keep on getting killed in the future.
The same thing has happened in modern Japan. On March 11th in 2011, a big earthquake hit Tohoku. After that, a Tsunami warning had been posted. Although people knew the danger, about 70% of people stayed in their home. Most of the people thought the Tsunami wouldn’t hit them and also thought it might be okay because others didn’t escape. This bias makes us dismiss proper judgment.
The normalcy bias is able to change our best times into a nightmare. “We should go back.” “Hey, come on mom, nothing will happen to us.” I said these words in happy excitement. On the last day of 2015, I was in Germany with my mother enjoying fireworks. My mother tried to make me go back to the hotel because we heard someone screaming and there were many drunken people. However, I didn’t pay attention to her and ended up having a terrible experience. Someone threw a firecracker at me and tried to steal my wallet. It was a horrifying moment. Although the situation was obviously dangerous, I kept staying there. I should have gone back to the hotel. I still regret it. The bias changed my best time into a nightmare.
You might have similar experiences. When an earthquake happens, you are like “oh, I think it was level 3”, aren’t you? Or, when you take a taxi or bus, you totally forget the existence of a seatbelt, don’t you? Everyone has normalcy bias, and it surely has an influence on our behavior. Moreover, nobody knows what will happen next. An emergency would happen 10 years later, 3 days later, or the next moment. That’s why everyone has to think about strategies to protect yourself.
Since the normalcy bias is a human instinct, it is difficult to remove it completely. However, we can control this instinct to some degree. To reduce this bias, it is necessary to get an "antibody" to the bias. Unless you get it, you will be killed by yourself.
How can we get an antibody? My suggestion is asking “what if” questions. Please imagine the possible dangers by using “what if” questions. What if you were in the scene of an accident? What if a big earthquake hits on where you are planning to go? What if you heard the sound of an explosion? What kinds of danger will there be? You can ask “what if” questions when you are watching the news or when you go somewhere that you don’t know well.
By simulating the situations, we get an antibody to the bias and there is a lower possibility that we'll face a dangerous situation. When an emergency actually happens, it is important to focus on grasping what is happening at the moment, not what others are doing. To do so, please ask yourself, “what if this situation is actually dangerous?” This question is the key, because not everyone can behave calmly and make good decisions. You would be able to judge the situation more calmly.
After I knew about the bias, I came to consider something unusual such as a big sound or even a little quake in connection with danger, and ask myself “what if” questions. I am not saying don’t go anywhere or don’t do anything, but I want you to notice that your casual decision based on “what if” question may change your destiny.
Through the “what if” questions, you can realize what you should do for the emergencies easier than ever before. Here is a successful example. According to the Japan Society for Natural Disaster Science, on that day, one city succeeded in saving 99.8% of children’s lives. In the city, there is a word that has been passed down through the generations. That is, “津波てんでんこ”, which means, run away without caring other people when the earthquake happens. Based on this word, people ran away from the ocean as soon as possible and saved own lives. What I want to emphasize is that many “what if” questions are underlying in this word; “what if tsunami actually comes to the house?”, or “what if I fail to escape by waiting someone or instruction?” Thanks to this, people in the city knew what to do under the emergency situation. On that day, escape or not decided the outcome. “What if” was the key to save the lives from the killer.
In today’s society, where everything changes rapidly, it is possible that something dangerous might happen in this otherwise safe country, Japan. Unprecedented acts of terrorism are happening in many countries, on a large scale. Japan is also more likely to have natural disasters than in other countries. In these situations, we get used to a lot of awful news. We take peace for granted, don’t we? It’s too late to regret after being involved in accidents or disasters. The past teaches us. The news teaches us. And this speech teaches you. Ladies and gentlemen, it is only you who can protect yourself from the killer in yourself.
4. Conclusion
How was the speech?? Wasn't it good??
We are not so sure about which information we should trust when many people state their own opinion. But, what is certain is asking what-if question to yourself changes how you act in the future. What if I go out today? What if I am infected by COVID-19 and spread it to my family member? This imagination is indispensable in this tough time.
Thank you for reading to the last. Please feel free to make any comments.
